Written by Robert Littal
As it stands right now the Indianapolis Colts are 12-0 and on track for their first Super
Bowl appearance since they were in Baltimore. When talking about winning and losing
Super Bowls two things jump right out at us.
1- You need to have a better than average defense to win.
2- Your Quarterback doesn’t necessarily have to win the game, but they
can definitely lose it.
Let’s take a look at the last 5 Super Bowl losers:
2004 Eagles- Quarterback blew the game with interceptions in the Red Zone and bad
clock management. You cannot blame T.O. for this loss Eagles fans.
2003 Panthers- A defense considered one of the best in the league allows season
high 481 yards in total offense and allows Patriots to drive down field in waning
seconds to kick game winning field goal.
2002 Oakland Raiders- Quarterback throws 5 interceptions. Game over
2001 Saint Louis Rams- Quarterback throws interception for touchdown. Defense
allows Patriots to drive down the field to kick winning field goal in waning seconds
2000 New York Giants- Quarterback throws for 112 yards off 39 attempts (think
about that for a minute) with 4 interceptions. Defense allows 34 points to a so-called
conservative offense.
Obviously now you can see a trend here. Your QB and your defense better bring
their “A” game to Super Bowl Sunday or you won’t be the team sipping champagne. At
worst, your QB can play average if your defense is good enough to carry the team.
Which brings us back to the Colts— I personally could care less if the Colts go
undefeated in the “regular season”. I emphasize regular season because no one
remembers regular season champions but they do remember World Champions. If the
Colts go 16-0 and lose the Super Bowl or don’t even make it to the big game the only
thing they will be remembered for being the biggest chokers of all time.
The Colts are far from invincible in my opinion and there are 8 teams that have a
legitimate shot at beating the Colts under the right circumstances. Here they are in
order of who I think has the best chance to beat them, with a short reason why:
Chicago Bears- Dominating defense usually trumps dominating offense.
San Diego Chargers- Possibly could outscore the Colts.
Cincinnati Bengals- See San Diego Chargers.
Kansas City Chiefs- Larry Johnson with an improving D.
New England Patriots- Past history.
Carolina Panthers- See Bears, not as dominate on D, but offense is better.
Seattle Seahawks- Shaun Alexander with an improving D.
Denver Broncos- Running game and physical D.
None of the teams above would be favored to beat the Colts but honestly would you be
surprised if any of them did? If the Bears had any semblance of a NFL caliber QB, I
really think they could beat the Colts but as illustrated above, your QB at the very least
has to be average. And right now Kyle Orton is worst than Kyle Boller, which is saying a
lot. It would not shock me though is any of the above teams trip up the Colts.
I am going to make an assumption that the Colts D will be good with the possibly of
being great throughout the playoffs. When you have an explosive offense your
defense as I stated before just have to be better than average. I am going to make
this assumption because if I didn’t, the rest of the article would not be as interesting.
With that being said, that only means that one person can be responsible for the Colts
not winning the Super Bowl— Peyton Manning. Manning is either the 2nd best, if not
the best Quarterback in the league (see: Tom Brady). I am not questioning his talent
and I am not saying he will blow this golden opportunity. He has already overcome one
hurdle beating the Patriots in New England in the regular season but this is a much
bigger one.
Here are the 3 reasons that Peyton Manning could blow the dream season for
the Colts:
1- His Arrogance
Some may call it confidence but whatever you want to call it, it sometimes causes
Manning to make some bad decisions. Case in point. In the Bengals game with the
Colts up by 11 and about 3 minutes left in the game, Manning calls 3 straight pass
plays because as he saw it the Bengals were stacking the lining to stop the run. The 3
pass plays were incomplete. Giving the Bengals an opportunity to make a mini-
comeback with 3 run plays regardless of how the Bengals were playing defense would
not have given the Bengals enough time to make any comeback at all. Manning has a
tendency to always want to go for the jugular and while in some regards that is what
makes him a great QB, it also makes him susceptible to making some idiotic calls. In
the heat of the moment, especially in the pressure cooker he will be in once the
playoffs start, he has to be sure to take in account the situation that he is in and make
the most intelligent call not necessarily the boldest call. This brings us to reason #2:
2- His Intelligence
A common problem with most geniuses is that they tend to over-think. It is somewhat a
gift and a curse. Having so much knowledge tends to cause you to second guess
yourself a lot. Former Patriots DB Ty Law was on a sports talk show a couple of weeks
ago and he was asked what made the Patriots defense so successful against Manning
in the past. Law said that the Patriots moved around a lot before the snap but really
had just a basic defense called. All the movement would make Peyton think something
was there that really wasn’t and many times check to a play that would actually going to
the strength of the defensive. As I stated before one of the strengths of Manning is his
ability to read the defense and call the best available play. If he runs into a defense
that can confuse him with their overages, it could cause him to be unsure of his calls.
Luckily for Manning there are not a lot of defenses capable of pulling this off. Ironically
most of the teams who could pull this off are in the NFC not the AFC. The Bears,
Panthers, Giants, and Cowboys all possess the defensive personnel that you would
need to confuse Manning. The AFC has a lot of offensive firepower but no team has
the defense to scare the Colts.
3- His Emotion
This goes hand and hand with reasons #1 and #2. Peyton is a highly competitive and
emotional guy. When he gets frustrated it is hard not to see it on his face. It affects his
performance when things are not going his way. One of the reasons he could never
beat the Florida Gators, and until this year the New England Patriots is because they
got into his head. When you are a perfectionist and someone disturbs something that
you are doing even in the slightest way it disrupts everything you are doing on a larger
scale. If the team is going to beat the Colts they are going to have to take Peyton out
of that rhythm that he is use to. They are going to have to beat him and his receivers
up. They are going to make him upset and start trying to do more than he wants to
do. Manning wants to be in control and if you take that control away from him he gets
flustered and that is when his intelligence goes out the door and the emotion walks in.
Once emotion walks in you see more of the force throws, more of the shouting matches
on the sidelines, and normally a Colts lost.
With all this being said here is what I think lies ahead for the future of the
Indianapolis Colts. If they are going to lose in the regular season it is probably going to
be to the San Diego Chargers (mark the tape they will smoke Jacksonville just to make
a point) whose playoff hopes may hinge on them beating the Colts while the Colts at
that point will only be playing to stay undefeated. The Seahawks have a chance only
because the game is in Seattle, but if Dungy doesn’t start resting players and knowing
they have a cake walk against the Cardinals at home to end the season, I can’t see
them losing to the Seahawks.
As I stated before none of the “regular season” stuff means anything. The Colts
have to win the Super Bowl; it is as simple as that. Even though to win the Super Bowl
they will have to beat some heavyweights (a possible divisional playoff game with the
Patriots looming) it doesn’t really matter because if they lose especially if they have a
perfect regular season, what would be talked about how they and specifically Peyton
Manning blew the best regular season ever.
