So the Blazers signed Paul Milsap to an offer sheet; I'm really not sure what to think of that. He's a good player, and the money wasn't ridiculous (4 years, $32 million), so it isn't a bad deal really. But I do wonder where he's going to play. LaMarcus Aldridge is the starting power forward, and Milsap isn't big enough to play center. Do they plan on moving Aldridge to center? He's not big enough for that, and they already have a capable starting center in Joel Pryzbilla and a backup they invested a first round pick in (Greg Oden). I do think that paying $32 million for a backup power forward is a bit much, so they must have something else in mind. But that isn't my real topic here. That would be the question the Blazers front office will have to ask themselves soon: do they stick with the youth movement they have going on or do they scrap it and get old to win big in the short run?
The roster they've assembled argues pretty well for the former, but history rules in favor of the latter. The Blazers have an oustanding collection of young players; of their nine regulars, only two are older than 25. They won 54 games last season, and were a tiebreaker away from having a top three playoff seed. You factor in the age on West rivals like San Antonio and Dallas, and you could make an argument that the Blazers should just stand pat for a few years and let these two teams (along with other outfits that will be old soon, like the Lakers) die off as title contenders while they mature into an elite team. Centerpiece Brandon Roy is already an All Star, LaMarcus Aldridge could be one soon, and they have a slew of youngsters that will makeup an potentially great rotation in a few years (Nicholas Batum, Sergio Rodriguez, Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw, Jerryd Bayless, and Martell Webster, all of whom are between 20 and 24 years old). Time is clearly on their side, right?
Not really. Over the past ten years, there have several examples of teams that assembled rosters chock full of good young players; none of them panned out. The Bulls put together a nucleus of Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Tyson Chandler, and Eddy Curry; they were dubbed the Baby Bulls and were poised for big things. Then Curry and Chandler failed to fully develop and fell out of favor with management while Hinrich and Deng scored bigger contracts than they deserved. The Bulls overspent on a declining Ben Wallace, wasted a draft pick on an unready Tyrus Thomas, and the whole ship almost went down. Now they've unloaded almost the entire group. The Clippers thought they'd struck gold with the Lamar Odom/Darius Miles/Elton Brand-led crew and then again with Brand, Corey Maggette, Chris Kaman, and Shaun Livingston. Neither group turned into contenders. The Nets tried in the late nineties with Sam Cassell, Keith Van Horn, and Kerry Kittles to no avail. And the Bullets/Wizards thought they'd ride Chris Webber, Juwan Howard, and Rod Strickland to playoff success. But it never happened.
So what went wrong? There are some common denominators. You have youngsters who don't reach their potential, guys who become free agents and get re-signed for too much money, and new acquisitions that go bust. And while all that goes on, the Lakers trade for Pau Gasol, the Celtics land Kevin Garnett AND Ray Allen, and the Spurs just keep on truckin. Or the Miami Heat decide to roll the dice with Shaquille O'Neal. A look at the recent non- Spurs teams that won titles over the past five years is pretty telling. The 2006 Miami Heat team has a good young nucleus of Dwyane Wade, Caron Butler, and Lamar Odom, but opted to deal Odom and Butler for O'Neal and then fill in with some other veterans like Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, and a returning Alonzo Mourning. The result was a trip to the conference finals in 2005 and a title in 2006. The Celtics had a truckload of promising young players like Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Kendrick Perkins, Delonte West, Tony Allen,and Rajon Rondo. They dealt all but Rondo and Perkins to land Ray Allen, Garnett, and a title in 2008. Then you had the Lakers who were trying to groom a young supporting cast of Andrew Bynum, Jordan Farmar, and some others to aid Kobe Bryant, only to scrap that entirely and get Gasol to join a veteran core of Bryant, Odom, and Derek Fisher on the way to the title in 2009.
The results don't lie. Collecting young players isn't a bad strategy if you want to win games and make the playoffs, but if you want a title you need great veterans. Should Portland choose to spend the next two to three years waiting for their group to mature, they may miss the boat entirely. The Lakers will lure another icon to take the torch from Bryant, and scuttle their dreams entirely. The Spurs may get lucky a third time and land the first pick in the draft the same year the next dominant big man is available, or Lebron may finally get the All Star sidekick he needs to bring trophies home to whatever team he's playing for. At some point, the Blazers' front office will have to make some hard choices and trade some of their pieces for a veteran All-Star or two or else run the risk of being the latest in a long line of future champions who never got to the finish line without falling apart.
Good article I can't really argue a point. To win a championship it would seem like you would need a good veteran nucleus.
I agree. They should think about trading Webster, Oden, and that foreign cat who jumps high (forgot his name) to get some more experienced pieces.
Why Not Instead Of Giving Milsap 8 Mil A Year, Give Odom 10 Mil And Help The Team While Hurting The Lakers In The Process.
well damon if you followed lamar you know he doesn't always live up to his potential. So the whole give him 10 mil with no team leader, lamar goes off the reservation.