With the playoffs about to start, I thought I'd look at the Hall of Fame chances of another veteran player who's put in his time and is racking up some numbers. I've already looked Fred Taylor and Kurt Warner, among others, and now I'm turning my attention to quarterback Donovan McNabb. McNabb has been much maligned throughout his career, and that has tended to overshadow his real accomplishments at the position. But when you actually look at his stats, win-loss record, etc. he stands up very well against many of those already in the Hall. So does his record to date warrant induction? Would a few more good years seal the deal for him? Or is he just very good, like Joe Theisman or Neil Lomax? Let's take a look:
The numbers: As it stands, McNabb has 4303 attempts (32nd all time) with 2534 completions(26th) for 29,320 yards (33rd) with 194 touchdowns (34th) and only 90 interceptions. So in the four most important statistical categories he's in the top 35. So for right now he's already of Hall of Famers Terry Bradshaw (in yards, attempts, and completions), Len Dawson (in the same three categories), and Troy Aikman (touchdowns). There are two other stats where he is light years ahead of darn near everybody: interception percentage (the percent of his passes that get picked off) and touchdown/interception ratio. His interception percentage is 2.1; the Hall of Famer that come closest is Joe Montana with 2.6. Think about that for a minute; Donovan McNabb throws interceptions at a lower rate than every quarterback in the Hall of Fame ever did. His TD/Int ratio is 2.16 to 1; the only Hall of Famer of McNabb's era who fares better is Steve Young with 2.17. The next closest one to McNabb is Joe Montana with 1.96. Compared with active players McNabb falls behind only Tom Brady's 2.29.
The Awards: McNabb has been to the Pro Bowl five times. He is admittedly lacking here. That's more than Bradshaw and Jim Kelly, but Bradshaw has four Super Bowl rings and Super Bowl MVPs to make up for it while Kelly was first team All Pro once.
Postseason success: McNabb is a little short here, too. One Super Bowl appearance, four trips to the NFC championship game, and a 7-5 overall playoff record. He's better than Marino's 8-10 with one Super Bowl appearance, but that's about it. If you take away the Super Bowl year Manning is 3-7, but when you add it in he's 7-7 with a ring. Warren Moon is 3-7, but that's mitigated by the five CFL titles he won. Sorry Donovan, you're coming up short here.
Mitigating Circumstances: Here's where McNabb again trumps his competition. Every Hall of Fame quarterback of recent vintage played several years with at least one receiver who was at best a Hall of Famer himself and at worst a consistent 1,000 yard receiver. McNabb has done this twice, in 2004 with Terrell Owens and in 2007 with Kevin Curtis. No other Eagle receiver has gotten over 1,000 yards the entire time McNabb has played there. Marino, Aikman, Moon, Young, Montana, and Elway all had at least on receiver go for 1,000 yards in over half of their seasons as starters. So have Favre and Manning. The only current Hall of Famer with a ratio similar to McNabb's is Jim Kelly, but he already has one of his receivers in the Hall (James Lofton) and a second who may be there soon. Tom Brady has only had a 1,000 receiver three times in seven years, but he'll have at least another two years or so with Randy Moss and Wes Welker so that will be changing soon. To be blunt, McNabb has had the worst receiving corp of any big-time quarterback in who knows how long. You can't find a Hall of Fame quarterback who didn't have at least one guy who is in the Hall of Fame, got 1,000 yards a bunch of times, or was at least known for making big plays.
The Verdict Numbers wise, he'll be fine. He's bound to crack the top 20 in yards, attempts, completions, and touchdowns soon. He may even break the top ten in some of those. In terms of accolades, it'll be hard to get more Pro Bowls with Drew Brees in New Orleans and Eli Manning in New York. He may squeak in one or two more. First team All-Pro just isn't going to happen at this point. He'll likely get a few more playoff victories since the Eagles will be competitive for the near future, but a Super Bowl run is hard to imagine right now. I think there will be some real debate over it, with people taking strong positions on either side. I think the lack of receivers helps him; has anyone done more with less, save Elway in the eighities? In my book, he's a Hall of Famer.
Hall of fame choker
But Romo never chokes...
I'll be honest when I say that i thought McNabb had more passing yards than what you listed here. In any event, I still see him as a Hall of Famer even though the media will hold his current lack of a Super Bowl Title and MVP award against him. As a frame of referrence, right now I would put Steve McNair over McNabb at this point for HOF consideration just based on the numbers.
I think McNabb get's a bad rap because of where he comes from. Think about it? Has Philadelphia really embraced McNabb? I'm from Philly and I know that all Philadelphia fans really think they are coaches. Back in December everyone wanted to see Cobb start. The organization really has not helped McNabb but for one season when they signed Terrell Owens. The organization refused to play ball with TO so he was left to do it again with a sub par cast. What is a guy suposed to do when you don't have a go to guy who has break away speed to make a catch? McNabb for a lack of better word needs to own up and make demands. Being a franchise player afforded him those rights to ask for a quality receiver.
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One thing you left out that actually enhances his chances of making the Hall - noone that I can recall in my 30+ years of watching sports had so much career-derailing events occur (booing at draft, TO, Rush's mouth, Garcia's run at the job, lack of playmakers, NAACP on his back, injuries, benching, big-game failures) and still stepped up, picked it up and performed again. While every one loves a winner, one form of winning is never giving up, and, as much as I thought he would, he hasn't.