I've thought it over, and my prediction is.....
STEELERS WIN STRAIGHT UP AND BEAT THE NUMBER
I wanted to come up with a scenario I believed in for a Cardinals victory. But I just couldn't. And I refuse to fall for the talking head rationalization campaign that always seems to dream up a way in which the overmatched team can win the game. It usually involves something that was done against the favorite during the regular season that the underdog looks to be able to do, but almost always includes something that you just know in your heart they won't. In my mind, for Arizona to win the following need to occur:
1. They have to protect Kurt Warner enough to sustain at least three touchdown drives.
2. They have to get far enough ahead to diminish the Steeler running game, but not so far that they just go bombs away.
3. They must force turnovers (which they're actually pretty good at) AND score off of them. Not necessarily returns for TDs, but at least drives that get them field goals.
4. They have to get to Big Ben and knock him around.
5. They have to not turn the ball over themselves
6. They have to at least show some kind of running game.
There are probably some other things you could add to that. But that's the gist of it. Now removing all emotion, how many of those things can you count on them doing? I say zero. I think they can do 1, 2, 5, and 6. 4 is out of the question, and I think 3 is 50/50. They can definitely force the turnovers, but they're not known for scoring off of them so what would that start now? There's just too much that has to go right for them to win. In essence, they have to play great while Pittsburgh plays badly.
On the other hand, Pittsburgh needs to do these things:
1. Run the ball.
2. Hit Warner early and often
3. Throw the ball successfully against the Cardinal secondary. Not for long bomb touchdowns, but just enough to get first downs consistently.
4. Avoid giving up any cheap points (returns for TDs, turnovers that lead to quick offensive points)
5. Don't lose points by turning the ball over when they're in scoring position
That's it really, and I know they can do all of that. They probably will do most of it regardless how the game goes. In short, the Steelers can play badly and still win, and they can win if both teams play well. There's no way the Cardinals can play badly and win. If both teams are bad, the Steelers win by seven to ten. If the Steelers play significantly better, they win in a blowout. If both teams play well, the Steelers win a nailbiter. And if the Cardinals play well while the Steelers don't you get a replay of the NFC title game. That's three out of four that point to the Steelers, so I pick them.
I thought this site hated the Steelers? Bout time you guys came around