NBA Roundup Vol. 8

BlackSportsOnline Senior Writer Robert Bonnette

on February 8, 2008 5:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (1230) | TrackBacks (0)

Time for the latest volume of the roundup. This week it's all Shaq all the time as we break down the big trade!!

Another Big Trade!!

I will never again question the tradeability of anyone in the NBA. It seems that every time someone's contract looks so bad that no one in their right mind would think about taking it on, somebody does. After seeing Shaq get traded to Phoenix, which NOBODY saw coming, I will never doubt again. The man has two years and $40 million left on his deal after this season. Who on earth would want to be stuck with that, considering that we're talking about an old Shaq and not the MVP-level Shaq of just a few seasons ago. He has long passed the point of diminishing returns but is getting paid more than almost everyone in the league. And for the Phoenix Suns, a team that has been giving away draft picks and players for almost nothing just to avoid the luxury tax, to be the trading partners is even more mind-boggling. They've given away the draft rights to Luol Deng and Rajon Rondo for cash and second round picks, and traded away Kurt Thomas for second round picks, all so they wouldn't have to fool with the luxury tax. It's been widely assumed that if $17 million man Shawn Marion opted out of the last year of his deal, the Suns would probably let him go rather than give him a salary bump. That totally disqualified them from ever doing anything like this. But lo and behold, they found a way to make it happen. In a desperate push to add some talent to their team for the postseason, they acquired the big guy and his bloated contract. There's only one problem, though. They had to give up Marion (and backup guard Marcus Banks) to do it. I don't think I'd have gone there.

Now I understand the rationalizations that led Suns GM Steve Kerr to make the trade. First off, the Suns have been following their usual path of regular season dominance which usually results in 55 to 60 wins and a playoff defeat at the hands of whoever ends up in the NBA Finals. They've been to that movie three times now and don't want to make it a fourth. With Steve Nash approaching NBA AARP age, the window of opportunity is closing very rapidly for them, so it's better to make a big move now than to wait another year. OK, fine. Second, the Lakers just made a huge move by trading for Pau Gasol. So now the Suns had to worry about being able to win the division, which hadn't been problem before. The possibility of finishing second and then having to play the Spurs or Mavericks in the first round became very real, and they wanted no part of that. They'd already been locked in a death match with the Lakers for the division crown, but Andrew Bynum's injury meant that a slide was likely and the Suns could breathe a little easier. Not any more, thanks to Gasol. So again, a move was needed to keep up with Lakers. And finally, there was the Shawn Marion issue. An All-Star who was a few months away from possibly leaving town for no compensation was not something they wanted to deal with, so they had to move him now so they could get something in return. Again, I understand.

Now all that being said, the move they did make was dead wrong. First off, we need to go back to this summer. The Suns more or less gave away Kurt Thomas to Seattle for some second round picks. They might as well have traded Kurt for me; it would have cost them the same amount of money, which is none at all. Everyone knows their big problem has been interior defense, and Thomas can provide plenty of that. They had Kurt for two years, and in each year they were unable to have both he and Amare Stoudemire on the floor when it mattered. The first year both men were out with injuries come playoff time, and last year Stoudemire was suspended for the series turning game five against the Spurs. This season both men have been healthy on their respective teams, so it could have finally come to fruition. Right now Thomas is a better interior defender than Shaq, rebounds better, and makes much less money ($8 million vs., $20 million for Shaq). Keeping him, which would have also meant being to hang on to Marion, would have made more sense than giving him away, then giving up Marion to get Shaq. For all intents and purposes, this was a trade of Thomas and Marion for Shaq, which is a net loser for the Suns.

That's strike one. Strike two is relying on a washed up O'Neal. The man is in his mid-thirties and only a shadow of his former self. It's not so much the diminished points and rebounds as it is the loss of quickness and loss of effectiveness the longer he's on the floor. He now picks up fouls a lot quicker than he used to, and is averaging fewer minutes now than he ever has. How is 29 minutes of an older, slower Shaquille O'Neal an improvement over 37 minutes of Marion, who can still score 20 points, grab 10 rebounds, and guard four positions? Yes, you can move Amare to power forward, but now you have two defensively challenged players on the floor instead of one. Neither of them is a major shot-blocker at this point, either, so you don't even get that. Right now I'd rather have Bynum and Gasol, to be honest with you. Adding O'Neal does not solve the Suns biggest problem, interior defense, and it hinders them offensively as well. He doesn't get the lift he used to, and routinely misses shots that aren't dunks and putbacks. A good low post defender like Tim Duncan, or someone can just put a body on him and make him shoot a hook shot or whatever, like Yao Ming or even Erick Dampier, can have success against him, which was unheard of three years ago. And please spare me the 'he can be the trailer on the fast break' argument. Whatever. Sure, he'll be able to do a little of that but there are going to be a lot more four against five situations now than there used to be.

And by the way, who's going to fill Marion's role as the jack-of-all trades defender? Boris Diaw? Grant Hill? I doubt it. What happens in a hypothetical playoff series when the Suns have to guard Pau Gasol with Stoudemire and Bynum with O'Neal? Or if they face the Jazz and have to decide whether to get torched for 30-plus a night by Carlos Boozer (if Amare guards him) or losing their new center to foul trouble (if they put Shaq on him)? Who guards T-Mac, or Manu Ginobli, or Stephen Jackson? I just don't see it, but apparently I'm in the minority. I've read a lot of columns that are putting the Suns in the Finals, maybe even winning it all. I don't think so. People are saying that Shaq will get focused now that people are calling him finished, and that he will use his anger to unleash the monster one last time. People said the same thing about Mike Tyson before his last few fights. We heard about how Mike was ready for that last run to the crown, and how he was finally in great shape again, etc. And a lot of us believed the hype, only to see Mike get beat handily darn near every time. I think we're going to see the same thing here. It may start well, but I'm predicting it will end badly.

Now I haven't talked about the Heat. What do they get? Cap flexibility at the end of the season, but not much else. If Marion opts out, they'll immediately get $17 million of space to go along with the relief they'd be getting from Ricky Davis and Jason Williams' expiring deals. They'd be able to sign some guys and, if they choose to, ink Marion to a big extension. The main objective here is to have a good enough team in place so that when Dwyane Wade's deal is up, he'll want to re-sign with them. This is the next step in that process, and the coming offseason will carry the mission further. Now as far as what Marion can do for them in the short team, I don't know. As long as he has a good point guard, which he does in Williams, he shouldn't have any problem. He's always had a good one to play with, from Jason Kidd to Stephon Marbury to Nash, so it's good for that Miami as someone who can get him the ball. After this season, who knows what he'll do? He wants to keep getting paid at the level he is now, which may not happen. He also wants to be the guy who gets all the credit, or at least more credit than he was getting in Phoenix, which he may regret later. When asked about being the Man or being on a winner, he suggested that as long as his team was in the playoffs every year, he'd rather be the Man. In Miami, he will at least get his name in the story every night even if it is after Wade's. Maybe that will placate him, along with that extension he's hoping for.

That's it for this time; next it will be a closer look at all the big in-season moves! Untl then..

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