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10/23/2006: "Robert Bonnette Presents The 2007 NBA Preview"
2007 NBA Season Preview
Written by Robert Bonnette
Email Robert Bonnette
The NBA season is upon us, and unlike most media outlets we don’t hate on the league here at BlackSportsOnline. Here’s your NBA Preview, full of what you need to know about the upcoming season and what to expect from your favorite squads. Dig in, enjoy, and send in your comments good and bad
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The big determinant of what’s going to happen in the West is not any trade or free agent signing, and it’s not a coaching hire or draft pick. What will likely decide the West is the dreaded I word: injuries. No fewer than seven teams have important players coming off of injury plagued seasons, and the results showed. Several teams finished just short of the playoffs, and a few others would have been in the hunt if not for an untimely injury to a key player. Denver, Golden State, Houston, Memphis, Phoenix, San Antonio, and Utah all could have finished with more wins than they did if they’d been at full strength. How their stars come back from this year will determine just who gets to play in May and will be goin fishin with Kenny and Charles.
Dallas
Mark it down: 50-plus wins, a trip to at least the second round of the playoffs, and an All-Star bid (maybe even an MVP) for Dirk Nowitzki.
Fuggetaboutit: Erick Dampier proving he deserves all that money he signed for.
Hopes: That the same cast of characters can maintain the harmony and get those last two wins they failed to get in the Finals last season.
Fears: The runner up blues set in, costing them some regular season wins and the division title (they definitely don’t want to have to win two rounds in the playoffs as the road team) and Jerry Stackhouse gets tired of being a sixth man and sacrificing his stats for the good of the team.
Conclusion: There’s no reason why they shouldn’t be able to maintain for another year. A lot will hinge on what kind of seed they end up with in the playoffs. If they get the division title and the one or two seed they can get back to the Finals, but if they have to play another game seven on the road against the Spurs or the Suns you honestly can’t expect them to win it this time.
Denver
Mark it down: 20-plus a game for Carmelo Anthony along with that elusive trip to the All-Star Game, provided the fans don’t forget him and the coaches don’t hate on him again. A double-double (and some missed games) from Marcus Camby, and more steady, underrated point guard play from Andre Miller. And a million puzzled fans and writers wondering just why they gave Nene $60 million.
Fuggetaboutit: Martin and Karl co-existing peacefully all season or Camby playing 82 games.
Hopes: JR Smith is able to take over as the starting shooting guard, Kenyon Martin stays healthy and doesn’t get into any more beefs with management.
Fears: Camby misses too many games, Martin’s knee acts up again, Martin clashes with George Karl, Smith isn’t good enough to lock it down at the two-guard spot.
Conclusion: There’s some real trouble brewing here. Martin and Karl have supposedly gotten everything straight, but knowing how they are it won’t be long before the beef starts up again. The Nene situation won’t help; the owner will be pushing for the new $60 million man to get more playing time than he should, which will threaten Martin’s territory. The Nuggets now have two overpaid power forwards, and that alone could sink the ship. Melo, Miller, and Camby are good enough to keep them alive, but if Utah can avoid the injury bug you can forget the postseason for the Nuggets. They’d be fine in the East, but they don’t play there and there are just too many teams with better players than they have.
Golden State
Mark it down: Don Nelson will put some crazy lineups on the floor, and pretty much banish anyone to the bench who has nothing to contribute offensively. That means you, Adonal Foyle. The team will be exciting to watch no matter how small the win total is. And Jason Richardson will continue on as one of the best players to not make the All-Star team.
Fuggetaboutit: The playoffs, and any major minutes for Foyle.
Hopes: Baron Davis stays healthy and gets along with the coach.
Fears: Davis gets hurt again and butts heads with Nelson the way he did with Mike Montgomery and Byron Scott. The other players don’t adjust well to their new roles.
Conclusion: When Nelson was first hired, a lot of people got ahead of themselves and predicted the playoffs. Now that we’ve had some time to calm down and look at things rationally, we can see that it isn’t happening. I can name more than eight teams better than the Warriors and they just don’t have enough real talent to make any kind of major leap over the competition this year. They’re counting on an often-injured player who is known to do his own thing when he doesn’t like what coach says (Davis), a starting center who only likes to shoot jumpers in Troy Murphy, and Mike Dunleavy Jr., who does a bunch of things average and nothing well, as their starting power forward. Good luck guys.
Houston
Mark it down: Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady make the All-Star team, and Shane Battier plays great defense.
Fuggetaboutit: The team averaging more than 95 points a game or Juwan Howard turning back the clock to 1996.
Hopes: Yao and T-Mac stay healthy, someone emerges from the pack at shooting guard, Jeff Van Gundy actually lets the guys score some points.
Fears: Yao and T-Mac combine to miss half the season again, Van Gundy continues to choke the life out of his team’s own offense.
Conclusion: T-Mac has been having back problems for the last few seasons; why should this year be any different? He may not miss 35 games again, but I wouldn’t bet on him making it through all 82. Yao has had his own set of injury issues as well over the years. These two are going to miss some games; if it’s somewhere between 5 and 15 each the Rockets should be fine as far as making the playoffs. If it’s twenty or more apiece you can just watch reruns of last seasons’ games and call it a day.
LA Clippers
Mark it down: 20 points and 10 boards a game for Elton Brand, Chris Kaman scaring small children on his way to a near double-double every night, Shaun Livingston wowing the crowd when he’s on the floor, and Corey Maggette not quite understanding this thing called defense.
Fuggetaboutit: Sam Cassell going quietly should Livingston starts making serious moves on taking his job.
Hopes: Good health for Livingston, for a change. A decisive conclusion to the inevitable competition for the starting point guard spot, with either Cassell holding Livingston off for another year or Livingston cleanly beating him out. That, and a trip to conference finals should they take someone to a game seven in the second round.
Fears: Livingston gets hurt again, and the guys start putting personal agendas ahead of more success. Cassell and Maggette have been known for some selfishness at times, and the issue of playing time could trigger that for both of them.
Conclusion: This group is the wildcard of the conference. They have the talent to get to the NBA Finals, but could easily go home in the first round depending on the matchups and how things shake out over the season.
LA Lakers
Mark it down: Plenty of big nights for Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom flirting with triple doubles on the regular, and more maddeningly inconsistent play from Kwame Brown.
Fuggetaboutit: Smush Parker making anything other than the All Worst Nicknames Team (his momma didn’t name him Smush, thank God).
Hopes: Brown’s promising moments last season carry over to this season, rookie point guard Jordan Farmar is good enough to eventually supplant Parker as the starter.
Fears: Farmar is no good, leaving them stuck with one of the worst starting point guards in the league, Brown doesn’t shake the inconsistency, and Kobe takes longer than expected getting all the way back from surgery.
Conclusion: Their destiny is in other people’s hands. Last season they benefited by major injuries in Houston and Utah, and a horrible start by Sacramento. It’s hard to imagine them making the playoffs if all of those teams are at full strength most of the season and New Orleans gets any better. Kobe will surely have memorable performances, and Odom will play at his usual near All-Star level, but after that it’s a crap shoot.
Memphis
Mark it down: Major uncertainty until Pau Gasol returns from injury. Mike Miller will play well, provided he’s not facing double teams every night.
Fuggetaboutit: The playoffs. Even if Gasol were healthy all season, they’ve lost too much ground to the competition.
Hopes: Gasol gets back ahead of schedule, rookie Rudy Gay is ready to play now, Damon Stoudamire stays healthy, Miller and Eddie Jones maintain what they did last season, Jake Tsakalidas builds on his promising finish.
Fears: Gasol takes longer than expected to get back and Gay isn’t ready for prime time.
Conclusion: The party looks to be over in Memphis, where what was shaping up to be a tough campaign got even tougher once Pau Gasol went down with a broken foot during the World Championships this summer. Without their linchpin, the Grizzlies will be a ship without a rudder early on. Their season could be over by the time he gets back unless the rest of the team can find a way to band together and survive. They’re looking at the lottery here.
Minnesota
Mark it down: Garnett goes for 20 and 12 again, but continues to pass the ball during the fourth quarter. Mike James takes enough shots to score 20, Ricky Davis throws in 15 or so every night. Mark Blount continues to make people scratch their heads and wonder just how he managed to get paid like he did.
Fuggetaboutit: The playoffs; they’re still not better than the teams who kept them out last season.
Hopes: Rookie Randy Foye is ready for action and can start from day one. James provides veteran leadership at the point, Davis doesn’t turn back into the Ricky Davis of old, Blount decides to actually grab a rebound or two sometime, and Rashard McCants gets back sooner than later.
Fears: Foye struggles early, no one can hit the shots Garnett gets them in the fourth quarter, McCants isn’t fully healed, James shoots too much and pisses everyone else off.
Conclusion: How long until KG has a Denny Green-like meltdown at a postgame press conference? Once again he’s been saddled with a group of teammates that play well enough to keep things interesting, but not well enough to win. They are optimistic about Foye, and if he shows himself to be a force then all is not lost. New point guard Mike James will help, but if no one emerges as a worthy compliment to Garnett we could be looking at the last straw for Garnett and the last stand for GM Kevin McHale. They’d have a shot in the East, but there are just too many teams ahead of them in line out West.
New Orleans
Mark it down: Chris Paul dazzles us again, and hopefully gets an All-Star bid for his efforts. Peja Stojakovic hits whatever open shots he gets, Bobby Jackson doesn’t hold up for 82 games.
Fuggetaboutit: Tyson Chandler becoming a major scoring factor. Paul may be able to get him near the 10-points per game mark, that’s about all you should hope for. He’s a defensive specialist and nothing more.
Hopes: Power forward David West makes the next step to 20-10 guy, rookies Cedric Simmons and Hilton Armstrong are able to provide some reserve muscle, Peja can get still get 20, Paul doesn’t get hurt.
Fears: Chandler continues with his bench-worthy play from last season, Peja starts to slip, and the rookies aren’t ready to contribute.
Conclusion: Year two of the Chris Paul Experience begins with a new wingman in Stojakovic, a new starting center in Chandler, and a new backup in Bobby Jackson. The Hornets flirted with the playoffs late last season, but were unable to close the deal. With Peja on board they have someone who can actually hit from outside with some consistency, which should undoubtedly open things up for everyone else. There’s also Chandler’s promise to get back to what got him that big contract in Chicago after a disappointing season last year that saw him racking up more splinters on the bench than anything else during the playoffs. If the Hornets get in, he’ll definitely be a big reason why. Will they get in? Probably not this season. They look like a good team on paper, but like a lot of teams they just don’t look good enough to supplant anyone who made it last year, or either of the teams that were derailed by injuries (Utah and Houston). 2007-2008 could be their year, though.
Phoenix
Mark it down: 100 points will be scored in almost every game, and 100 will be given up on many nights as well. Steve Nash will continue on for another season as the best offensive point guard in the league.
Fuggetaboutit: Nash locking anyone down on defense, or winning a third straight MVP. They can’t put him in Bird territory when his team will likely finish the season with the same number of championship rings as they have now: zero.
Hopes: Amare Stoudamire’s knee is sound by opening day, Kurt Thomas is ready to play and can provide the steady post play they need, and Nash can play like an MVP for another year before the decline kicks in.
Fears: Nash starts getting old before Marcus Banks is ready to take over for him, Stoudamire’s knee isn’t fully healed.
Conclusion: We know what to expect from the Suns; the questions are whether they can beat a team like San Antonio or Dallas in a seven game series. If Thomas and Stoudamire can provide the proper low –post action at both ends of the floor, then I like their chances. On the other hand, if they have to rely on Boris Diaw at center for another year things could get difficult. The prognosis for them is good; they should get to the second round without much trouble, but they’re going to have to step things up to get further.
Portland
Mark it down: Losses, many of them. This team has the potential to be as bad as some of those early-90s, pre-Cuban Maverick teams were. Their best offensive player, Zach Randolph, to mail it in and their biggest personality, Darius Miles, has become known as a slacking underachiever who is poison in the locker room. Yikes. What the heck was Nate McMillan thinking when he took this job?
Fuggetaboutit: Just about anything positive. They need to put up a sign at the front door of the Rose Garden that says ‘Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter Here’.
Hopes: Second-year man Jarrett Jack proves to be the right choice amongst the three point guards they had last season (the other two were shipped out of town), rookie guard Brandon Roy lives up to his billing as best overall player in his draft class (which of course meant he got picked sixth instead of first; gotta love that NBA drafting philosophy), Randolph actually pays attention for a whole season, and they find a way for Dubya to declare Miles an enemy combatant so they can get him the heck out of town.
Fears: Jamal Magloire and Joel Przybilla get into a nasty spat over gets to start at center, Roy and fellow rookie LeMarcus Aldridge don’t pan out, Randolph revs up Operation Shutdown for another season.
Conclusion: Overall, the players aren’t all that bad, but there is just too much being placed on the shoulders of rookies, first time starters, and guys who are known as problem children. The few solid veteran players aren’t the leader types, so there isn’t anyone for the young locker room to look to for real direction. If Roy Jack does well and Randolph behaves they can definitely be competitive, but given the competition they’re facing they don’t have much margin for error. I feel your pain Blazers fans.
San Antonio
Mark it down: Another MVP-caliber season from Tim Duncan, and All-Star berth for either Manu Ginobli or Tony Parker, uncertainty at the center position.
Fuggetaboutit: Bruce Bowen averaging double figures in scoring, not seeing any shots of Eva Longoria at the home games (at least for the first few weeks of the season until the break up gets confirmed).
Hopes: Duncan doesn’t have any lingering effects from last season’s injuries, the backcourt doesn’t get hurt, Bowen is able to fend off Father Time for another season.
Fears: Bowen turns into the old man who can’t guard anyone anymore, Duncan’s foot keeps acting up, no one steps up at center.
Conclusion: They can make a run at the title this season, but then it may be time to replace some of the reserves and maybe Bowen. They’re not the mortal lock for the conference finals anymore, and this season will be let us all know if they’re slipping or if they still got the juice. It won’t be easy, seeing as how Dallas and Phoenix are both locked and loaded to get to the Finals or bust,, but if anyone can throw a monkey wrench in the plans, it’s San Antonio.
Sacramento
Mark it down: Ron Artest will be Ron Artest, which means some great play on the court with some bizarre episodes off it. Another almost All-Star season from Mike Bibby, and the usual 15 points and 7 or 8 rebounds from Brad Miller.
Fuggetaboutit: New Eric Musselman remaining calm all season long; that just isn’t his way.
Hopes: Artest isn’t ready for the spaceship to come back to Earth to take him home, and can get along with everyone. One of the young shooting guards emerges as a full-time starter, a good start to the season record-wise so if they do get in the playoffs, it will be with a higher seed.
Fears: Artest goes wacky and no one gets along with Musselman.
Conclusion: The move to replace Rick Adelman as coach with Musselman will be the difference between however this season goes compared to last season. Adelman is a good enough coach who can win when you give him good players, and he actually got along with both Artest and Bonzi Wells, another known malcontent. Why that didn’t warrant him an extension is beyond me; now you replace him with a guy who took all of two season to piss everyone off in Golden State and has already gotten himself a DUI before the season even started? The Kings could sneak into the playoffs, but they very easily find themselves on the outside looking in for the first time in almost a decade.
Seattle
Mark it down: 25 a game from Ray Allen, with another 20 chipped in by Rashard Lewis. Occasional big nights from Chris Wilcox, great play at the offensive end by Luke Ridinhour, horrible play at the defensive end from the same Mr. Ridinhour. And oh yeah, a lot of splinters from sitting on the bench for first round pick Saer Sene.
Fuggetaboutit: Ridinhour shutting anyone down, ever.
Hopes: At least one of their other two project centers, Robert Swift and Johan Petro, is ready for consistent minutes. Nick Collison stays healthy all season, and Wilcox is able to do over 82 games against what he did late in the season against the scrubs of the league at his position.
Fears: Ridinhour’s defense continues to be just bad enough to get him sent to the bench in crunch time, Wilcox continues his disappearing act against the better power forwards in the league, and none of the centers make any improvement.
Conclusion: There’s a potential controversy brewing at point guard, where starter Luke Ridinhour is facing a serious challenge from Earl Watson. Luke is the clear winner at the offensive end, but is a horrendous defender while Watson is a pretty good one. Watson got a lot of crunch time minutes for defensive purposes, and if that keep up coach Bob Hill may find himself wanting to play Watson more and more. I’m still scratching my head over the move to draft Saer Sene; you already have two raw projects at center and you choose a third one? Why? The Sonics are one of those teams where the individual parts look good but don’t add up to much of a final product. Expect them to finish near the bottom of the conference this season.
Utah
Mark it down: Solid point guard play from second year man Deron Williams, underrated play t the center position from Mehmet Okur, and great all around play from Andrei Kirilenko.
Fuggetaboutit: Jerry Sloan going all season without getting pissed off at somebody for either being soft or not knowing what the heck they’re doing out there. Sloan still wins the coach you don’t want to get in a fight with award.
Hopes: Good health!! Kirilenko and power forward Carlos Boozer lized on the injured list last season; Kirilenko spends a good chunk of time almost every season it seems. That was the big difference between them winning the division and missing the playoffs altogether, and it will be again this season.
Fears: Guys get hurt again.
Conclusion: Boozer should be OK for a full season, but now Sloan is starting to really dislike him for various reasons. He could be traded out of town. They haven’t settled on a shooting guard yet, so that could be a problem spot. Kirilenko’s kamikaze style of play is going to cost him some games, it’s a matter of keeping that number as low as possible. The prognosis looks fairly bright, but the book on them is the same as last season.
Playoff Locks: Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix
Likely qualifiers: Sacramento, LA Clippers
Have a shot at getting in: Utah, Denver, Houston, New Orleans, LA Lakers
Start counting those ping pong balls: Portland, Seattle, Minnesota, Golden State, Memphis
Pick to win the conference: Dallas
All Star starters: Kobe Bryant , Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, Yao Ming
Reserves: Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Shawn Marion, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Tracy McGrady, Manu Ginobli or Tony Parker
Top Rookies: Randy Foye, Brandon Roy
Top Coach: Jerry Sloan
Players under the gun to make it happen: Kenyon Martin, Kwame Brown, Jarrett Jack, Carlos Boozer
Coaches on the hot seat: Jeff Van Gundy, Mike Fratello, Bob Hill
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Here’s your Eastern Conference Preview, full of what you need to know about the upcoming season and what to expect from your favorite squads.
Times are a changing in the East; Ben Wallace fired the shot heard round the world when he bolted from Detroit to Chicago; in one move, he effectively ended the Pistons’ return to glory and made the Bulls a team to watch. The rest of the conference is relying on youth to make things better, and we’ll see just how good of any idea that is.
Atlanta
Mark it down: A lot of highlight reel plays mixed in the usual lapses you get from young players like missed defensive rotations, turnovers, etc. A few upset wins over better teams along with some horrendously ugly losses on some nights.
Fuggetaboutit: Playoffs. Not with this bunch.
Hopes: That the young guns can start to mature into real ballplayers and that Speedy Claxton can provide some veteran leadership at the point guard spot. If everything falls in to place, they could flirt with a .500 record.
Fears: That Smith, Childress, and Marvin Williams don’t get any better than they were at the end of last season, and that Claxton doesn’t stay healthy all season (he got hurt during camp and had to miss some time).
Conclusion: The Hawks will be interesting to watch, but I’m not expecting much improvement in the standings from them. Josh Smith is one of SLAM Magazine favorite players, as they overhype just about everything he does. He did average 15 points and 7 rebounds after the All-Star break last season, but is still more athlete than ballplayer. Reviews of Marvin Williams are all over the place; some predict stardom for him while others are saying he stinks. These guys in general are just not as good as some would want you to think. Adding Speedy at Claxton at point guard will help, but thirty or so wins is about all you should expect from this crew.
Boston
Mark it down: 25-plus per game from Paul Pierce with another 20 thrown in from Wally Szczerbiak, wild inconsistency from the rest of the roster.
Fuggetaboutit: Any idea of what this team’s direction is; do they want to go with the youth or the veterans? Coach Doc Rivers is on record as not having developed a set rotation yet, largely due to the inconsistency of the younger players.
Hopes: That all their youngsters, namely Sebastian Telfair, Rajon Rondo, Al Jefferson, and Kendrick Perkins begin to show and prove this season.
Fears: Perkins and Jefferson max out short of management’s lofty goals for them, Rondo isn’t ready for prime time, and Telfair proves as unreliable in Beantown as he was in Portland (that jumper is still AWFUL). If Theo Ratliff is the starting center come March, Perkins is done.
Conclusion: Too much youth!! These guys are worse than anyone else when it come to putting a team together. Their two best players are in their late 20s, yet they insist on bringing in more and more raw specimens whom they hope to mold into ballplayers. Jefferson and Perkins have been struggling whenever they get in the game, and neither can seem to consistent score or rebound in double figures. Rondo is unproven, and Telfair’s off the court issues make me wonder if the Celtics really want to lock this guy up for big money. His reliability is suspect, to say the least. They were a ball of confusion last season, and things won’t be much different this year.
Charlotte
Mark it down: So many unfounded comparisons between Adam Morrison and Larry Bird that you will want to puke.
Fuggetaboutit: Morrison making the All-Defensive team.
Hopes: Morrison is ready for prime time by season’s end, point guard Raymond Felton builds on the promise he showed in the second half of the season, Emeka Okafor stays injury free.
Fears: Okafor and May get hurt again.
Conclusion: They’ll be better, but not playoff worthy just yet. The early verdict on Morrison is that he’s legit; his scoring will definitely make a difference, especially late in games. They’ve been competitive already, and they probably will get some surprising wins this season.
Chicago
Mark it down: A top four seed, and a trip past the first round of the playoffs.
Fuggetaboutit: Leading the league in scoring; this group will be lucky to average 100 points a game.
Hopes: Ben Wallace does for them what he did for the Pistons; Tyrus Thomas starts progressing towards double double land.
Fears: Wallace gets old ahead of schedule, Thomas is so bad that PJ Brown has to play 30-plus minutes every night at age 37.
Conclusion: They’re pinning a lot on Wallace in the present, and Thomas in the future. As far as this year, they are loaded. Their group perimeter players is one of the best in the league, and their interior defense will be stellar. The question with them is who will step up in crunch time of a game seven, when the competition is top notch and baskets are harder to get. They still don’t have a leader at the offensive end, someone you can give the ball to for several possessions in a row and come away with baskets; if they want to get past the better teams they’ll need someone to emerge. But there’s no reason they can’t excel in the regular season and maybe even win the division.
Cleveland
Mark it down: Triple doubles for Lebron (and a top five MVP finish), missed games for Larry Hughes, and not enough respect for Drew Gooden or Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
Fuggetaboutit: Eric Snow making the All-Star team; he just isn’t very good.
Hopes: Lebron keeps it moving like he did last year, Hughes stays healthy all season, Snow can hang on another year at point guard, the big men continue to do their thing.
Fears: Hughes gets hurt again, Lebron gets frustrated with his teammates and turns into the one man band, and the defense doesn’t get any better, which will cost them a higher seed.
Conclusion: They’ll be good again, but if they don’t get better at the defensive end they won’t have any chance at the division title. Lebron should be able to get them past whoever they face in the first round, but after that it will be hard beating Chicago or Miami in a seven game series.
Detroit
Mark it down: More points surrendered, better ball movement on offense, fewer wins than last year.
Fuggetaboutit: A championship, having four guys in the All-Star Game, a sequel to the Chauncey Billups MVP campaign.
Hopes: Nazr Mohammed provides enough offense to make people happy he replaced Ben Wallace and enough defense to keep people from wishing Ben was still there.
Fears: People start attacking the basket now that Ben isn’t there to scare them away anymore, Rasheed Wallace goes nuts and sets a record for technical fouls and ejections.
Conclusion: They’re not dead yet, but they are hurting bad right now. Wallace provided more than stats; he brought a presence to the defensive end that will not be felt anymore, one that made people think twice before trying to go to the hole. It’s likely that the guards will suffer defensively as wee without the big eraser behind them to clean up any mistakes they make. At the same time, the offense will be better and more fluid now that they don’t have to play four on five anymore. Mohammed did average 15 points a game a few years ago in New York, so he an score some points. They might still win their division, but they’re not getting past the second round this year. Miami, Chicago, and Cleveland are all better equipped to win in the postseason.
Indiana
Mark it down: 20 and 10 from Jermaine O’Neal.
Fuggetaboutit: Any real excitement. This is one team that just won’t be capturing much interest this season.
Hopes: Al Harrington is able to play power forward, which will allow them to put O’Neal at center, and keep second year man Danny Granger in the starting lineup at small forward. They also want Tinsley to stay healthy and Jackson to stay out of jail (unless offseason pickup Marquis Daniels proves to be a better option at the two guard spot).
Fears: Daniels can’t beat out Jackson, Tinsley can’t avoid the injured list, Harrington isn’t able to handle the four duties on a team that wants to make the playoffs.
Conclusion: The Pacers are hoping that they can get away with playing Al Harrington at power forward, which is a mistake in my book. He averaged just under seven rebounds a game last year, which is great for a small forward but below average for a four man. When you throw in the fact that O’Neal isn’t they type to get tough boards there’s the potential for these guys to get killed on the glass year if they keep Jeff Foster out of the starting lineup; Foster is actually a better rebounder than anyone on the team, even O’Neal. I’m guessing that they’ll trudge their way through the regular season and win just enough to get a seven or eight seed. Four games later, it’ll be tee time.
Miami
Mark it down: A lackluster regular season, record-wise, and then a big push come playoff time. Wade gets his name in the top three for MVP.
Fuggetaboutit: 60-plus wins; these guys just aren’t that focused on regular season excellence.
Hopes: That last year can repeat itself.
Fears: Shaq goes over the cliff and all the guys who held their egos in check (Antoine Walker, Gary Payton, James Posey, etc.) start getting selfish again.
Conclusion: No reason they can’t repeat as Eastern Conference winners, or as champs depending on who they get as a Finals opponent. Pencil them in for the Eastern Conference Finals and the Southeast division title.
Milwaukee
Mark it down: Michael Redd does it big again to the tune of 24 points a game.
Fuggetaboutit: A hot start; starting center Andrew Bogut is out for a good month, and starting small forward Bobby Simmons will also miss the first two weeks. They won’t totally tank, but a 10-0 start is definitely out of the question.
Hopes: Bogut gets back quickly and makes strides toward becoming a franchise center, Mo Williams is able to take over at point guard fulltime, nobody else gets hurt.
Fears: Williams gets outplayed by backup Steve Blake, Bogut is slow getting back to form, Charlie Villaneuva isn’t able to develop any consistency.
Conclusion: This season will probably be a small step back for the Bucks; they’re likely to start out slow without two of their starting five in the lineup, and may be too far behind to catch up once they’re back at full strength. Their defensive issues look to still be there, so expect some defeats at the hands of lesser teams. I can see them finishing the season well, but just short of qualifying for the playoffs.
New Jersey
Mark it down: Vince Carter makes highlight reels at least once or twice a week, Nenad Kristic continues to be one of the best centers you’ve never heard of, Jason Collins to be the worst starting power forward in the league hands down.
Fuggetaboutit: Any real competition for the Atlantic division title.
Hopes: The guys they brought in to add depth (Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, Eddie House) can do just that.
Fears: None of the new additions pan out and it’s meet the new Nets, same as the old Nets.
Conclusion: The four man band lives on. You can rinse and repeat last year’s script for real: their division rivals will all be struggling to make .500, so the Nets will win the division almost by default. And come playoff time, their lack of size and epth will be their undoing.
New York
Mark it down: Lots of high scoring games by their opponents, flashes of greatness mixed in with long stretches of mediocrity. And plenty of drama behind the scenes. Oh, and at least 10 more wins.
Fuggetaboutit: Any breaks from the media no matter how things turn out for them record-wise.
Hopes: Stephon Marbury is happier and plays like it, a taker for Steve Francis is found, Eddy Curry decides to man up and do what he’s capable of, and all the guys whose minutes will suffer don’t cry about it.
Fears: No one is satisfied with their shots or minutes, the draft picks don’t pan out.
Conclusion: They’ll be better than you think; there’s just too much talent for them to suck but so bad. Isaiah will get more wins out of them just by not poisoning the atmosphere like Larry Brown did. Unfortunately, they have too much faith in Curry, who is proving to be another money stealer like his class of 2001 compadre Kwame Brown. 35 to 40 wins can happen, but in the end it won’t be enough to make the playoffs or save Isaiah’s job.
Orlando
Mark it down: Some downright scary good games out of Dwight Howard, good point guard play from Jameer Nelson.
Fuggetaboutit: 82 games out of Grant Hill.
Hopes: Howard can start putting 20 points a game next to the 12 rebounds he pulled down last season, Nelson continues to improve at the point, and Darko Millicic earns a starting job at the center spot. And J.J. Redick proves to be a starting two guard in the league.
Fears: Howard’s offense doesn’t get any better, Redick proves to be a spot up shooter and nothing more, Darko is content to stay at the 25 minute, 10 point, 6 rebound level.
Conclusion: Playoffs are doable, but they’ll need some more out of their young guys to make it happen. Millicic is the key here; we know that Nelson and Howard are legit guys at their positions, but if Darko can approach what he was hyped up to be when he got drafted, then the sky’s the limit. Redick is coming back off an injury, so he won’t be doing much early on. They may play in late April, but even then they’ll be getting the broom.
Philadelphia
Mark it down: 30 a game from the Answer, inconsistency from everyone else.
Fuggetaboutit: Any improvement from last year, especially since they didn’t make any major roster changes.
Hopes: Andre Iguodala can make some kind of leap from OK player to 15 to 20 point scorer, Samuel Dalembert starts earning his money.
Fears: No one emerges to share the load with Iverson.
Conclusion: Not much to cheer for here; the team remains dependent on Iverson, a old power forward with a bum knee who’s doing it with mirrors (Chris Webber), a center who doesn’t play defense and can’t catch the ball in the post to save his life (Dalembert), and a shooting guards who’s afraid to shoot (Iguodala). This is truly a bastion of mediocrity, and even Iverson can’t lift them but so far. Hello, lottery!
Toronto
Mark it down: Chris Bosh does it big as he tries to keep up with Wade, Lebron, and Melo; first overall pick Andrea Bargnani doesn’t start all season long, Morris Peterson quietly gets it done, TJ Ford moves faster than you can keep up with him.
Fuggetaboutit: Fans wishing for the return of Rafael Araujo.
Hopes: Bargnani is the next Dirk Nowitzki, Ford stays healthy all season.
Fears: Andrea stinks out loud, Ford gets hurt, Bosh gets upset.
Conclusion: Not much action here to report. Bargnani will likely startout with small minutes and then get more as the season goes on. Ford will be very exciting to watch, and Bosh will continue on as a solid up and coming post player. But there isn’t enough quality here to get past any of the teams who finished ahead of them last season. New GM Bryan Colangelo may be laying the seeds for a resurgence, but don’t expect much fruit this season.
Washington
Mark it down: Lots of 100 point games, great individual games from Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, and Caron Butler.
Fuggetaboutit: Brendan Haywood ever becoming more than a platoon player at center.
Hopes: Good health for all, some improvement at the defensive end.
Fears: Guys play defense like they don’t get paid for it again.
Conclusion: Playoffs? No doubt. Winning record? Easy. But a deep playoff run? Not happening. They’ll dazzle audiences all season long, but will likely continue their habit of getting big leads and pissing them away. Until they get that fixed, they’ll be susceptible in the playoffs to just about anyone they face. Another first round exit seems likely.
Playoff Locks: Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, New Jersey
Likely qualifiers: Washington, Indiana
Have a shot at getting in: Orlando, Milwaukee, New York
Start counting those ping pong balls: Charlotte, Atlanta, Toronto, Boston, Philadelphia
Pick to win the conference: Miami
All Star starters: Dwyane Wade, Allen Iverson, Lebron James, Vince Carter, Shaquille O’Neal
Reserves: Gilbert Arenas, Chris Bosh, Ben Wallace, Dwight Howard, Jermaine O’Neal, Paul Pierce, Rip Hamilton
Top Rookies: Adam Morrison
Top Coach: Pat Riley
Players under the gun to make it happen: Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Sebastian Telfair
Coaches on the hot seat: Mike Woodson, Doc Rivers, Isaiah Thomas, Flip Suanders